Last month, government data provided one last snapshot of the UK economy ahead of John Healey’s first Autumn Budget, which was announced on 28 October.

The picture it painted was surprisingly encouraging, with the ONS reporting that on an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.1% — the strongest growth rate since August 2022. It is hard to ignore the resilience that the UK’s economy has displayed in 2026 so far, despite the geopolitical events that have sent shockwaves across global markets.

At the same time, however, rising inflation has prompted the Bank of England to raise interest rates, signalling that there may be tougher times ahead for businesses and individuals. Below, we summarise the main updates relating to GDP, inflation, employment and insolvency, with some insights about where the Autumn Budget has left businesses.

GDP — August 2026

• In the three months to August 2026 compared to the three months to May 2026, UK GDP once again increased, this time by 0.7%. This came after a growth of 0.5% in the three months to July and 0.5% in the three months to June.
• Services sector output grew by 0.9% after growing by 0.7% (revised up) in the three months to July 2026, once again making the only positive contribution to GDP growth. Production (-0.2%) and construction output (-1%) both continued their downward trend.
• In the month of August 2026, GDP grew by 0.1% following a growth of 0.4% in July and 0.4% in June. This growth was driven by a 0.8% growth in production. Services showed no growth, and construction fell by 0.2%
• Small though it was, this overall growth in UK GDP was a surprise to City economists, who had forecast a 0.1% contraction rather than a 0.1% growth. Despite the surge in energy costs, this headline improvement was driven by manufacturing. On an annual basis, the ONS said the economy had grown by 2.1% — the strongest rate since August 2022.
• Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in the three months to August, compared to the three months to May. This follows growth of 0.6% in the three months to July 2026 and 0.8% in the three months to June. Over the longer term, Scottish GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.3% compare with the same three months in 2025.

Inflation — September 2026

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% the previous month. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.4%, compared with little change in September 2025. Surging inflation is the result of soaring oil and gas prices as the war in Iran continues.
• Core CPI (CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 2.6% in August.
• As inflation rises quicker than expected, and government borrowing costs continue to follow suit, the Bank of England finally raised interest rates for the first time in three years. The base rate moved from 3.75% to 4%, and the Bank warned that further increases are likely unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved.

Employment

The latest Office for National Statistics labour force and employment data show:

• The estimated UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was 4.7% in June to August 2026. This represented a surprising fall from 4.9% in the three months to July, despite forecasters expecting the rate to reach 5%.
• Job vacancies decreased on the quarter, with early estimates for July to September 2026 suggesting a decrease of 21,000 (2.9%) vacancies to 691,000, compared with April to June 2026. This is the first time the number has been below 700,000 since the three months to April 2021.
• The unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 was 15.6%, up from 14.6% the previous year.
• The economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 remained at 20.9%. This is unchanged from the three months to July 2026, and 0.1% lower than the same period last year.
• The annual growth rate in employee earnings (excluding bonuses) was 3.7% in June to August 2026, showing a small increase compared to the three previous three-month periods. Adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), annual wage growth in real terms remained at 0.6% for regular pay.

Insolvencies — September 2026

There were 1,882 registered company insolvencies in England and Wales in September 2026, 4% lower than in August 2026 (1,953) and 5% lower than September 2025 (1,973). These insolvencies consisted of 341 compulsory liquidations, 1,420 creditors’ voluntary liquidations (CVLs), 102 administrations and 19 company voluntary arrangements (CVAs), with no receivership appointments.

Compulsory liquidations were up over the month and over the year, whilst administrations were 44% lower than in August 2026 and 20% lower than in September 2025; the Insolvency Service has attributed recent volatility in administration numbers to the administration of over 250 connected companies in the real estate sector earlier this year.

In Scotland, there were 117 company insolvencies registered in September, which is 14% higher than the same month the previous year. Scottish insolvencies consisted of 68 CVLs, 38 compulsory liquidations, 10 administrations and one CVA. Again, no receiverships.

R3 President Sonia Jordan commented that September’s insolvency figures stayed relatively stable, but that personal insolvencies were increasing as cost of living pressures compound. Individual insolvency numbers for England and Wales were slightly lower than August 2026 but increased by 9% compared to September 2025. With the exception of December last year, which was impacted by the clearing of a case backlog, September 2026 saw the highest monthly number of individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs) since November 2022.

Where does the Budget leave UK growth?

The Autumn Budget contained an unusually high number of new policies, yet most were small measures with limited immediate impact. Whilst Healey succeeded in avoiding a bond market crash, critics have noted that the announcement didn’t contain much to drive the short-term growth the UK needs.

The Budget reinforced the Government’s commitment to devolution, which could be the thing to stimulate regional growth in the longer term through additional funding for local leaders. In the meantime, however, businesses face higher employment costs and operational expenses, with little immediate relief for most sectors.

These pressures were reflected in the latest forecasts. In its outlook report, published alongside the Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its 2027 growth estimate from 1.6% to 1% as the impacts of the Iran war continue. Though the UK economy has surpassed predictions so far in the wake of the energy crisis, economists expect this momentum to falter at the end of the year.

For better or worse, the Budget was a bit of a non-event, with most of the big decisions on departmental funding and energy policy deferred until next year’s spending review. That said, owner-managed businesses will no doubt have noted upcoming changes for HMRC collection methods, Business Asset Disposal Relief and the tax treatment of company distributions to individual shareholders, as well as some more hopeful opportunities for high-growth businesses and entrepreneurs.

Planning early will put businesses in a stronger position to adapt to whatever comes next. That means reviewing your most significant risks, from reliance on a single customer to vulnerable supply chains, and having a practical Plan B ready before problems arise.

If you are seeking professional advice for your business, Opus is here to help. You can speak to one of our specialists, who can discuss options with you. We have offices nationwide and by contacting us on 0203 995 6380, you will be able to get immediate assistance from our Partner-led team.

If you are seeking professional advice for your business, Opus is here to help. You can speak to one of our specialists, who can discuss options with you. We have offices nationwide and by contacting us on 0203 995 6380, you will be able to get immediate assistance from our Partner-led team.