Whilst global news is awash with policy change, tariff threats and global ‘peace making’, here in the UK it is well nigh impossible to escape the pre-math of the next Autumn Budget due to be announced at the end of this month.

The media is inundated with leaks, briefings, lobbying and febrile speculation.  The housing market is almost at a standstill awaiting clarity on property tax reform and possible changes to capital gains and inheritance taxes. Most consumers appear to have closed their wallets for the time being at least, threatening the viability of many hospitality, retail and leisure firms just as they head into the vital ‘golden’ quarter over the festive season.

Every business sector and sub-sector imaginable is pressing their views and demands on the Chancellor, which betrays what anecdotally is said to be going on behind the scenes – that many investment projects have had their pause buttons pressed until we know how the government is going to plug its alleged funding gap, estimated to be somewhere north of £20bn.

In the meanwhile, what is going on in the economy itself?

GDP – August 2025

• After a drop of 0.1% in July, growth has lurched marginally above the line with a 0.1% rise in August. The more meaningful quarterly figure to August showed a rise of 0.3% on the previous quarter, a slight improvement on the 0.2% increase in July.
• Breaking down the three months to August in more detail, the dominant services sector delivered growth of 0.4%, just as it did in July. The best performing sub-sectors were human health activities (+1.7%), rental and leasing (+0.8%) and IT (+3.2%). The laggards were led by wholesale and retail (-0.9%).
• Production GDP fell by 0.3% after a bigger fall of 1.3% in July. There was no growth in manufacturing.
• Construction GDP rose by a healthy 0.3% but by less than its 0.6% rise in July. Repair and maintenance activity rose by 1.3%, but new work was down 0.4%. Worryingly in the context of the government’s ambitious 1.5 million new homes target, new private house building was down 1.8%.
• Consumer-facing services GDP fell by 0.6%, as it did in July.

Inflation – September 2025  

• CPI inflation in September was steady at 3.8%. for the third consecutive month. Market expectations were for a figure of 4.0%.
• Upward influences were air fares and motor fuel, but these were offset by sharply lower recreation and culture prices, as well falling food inflation.
• ‘Core’ inflation (excluding the more volatile elements, such as housing and energy costs) came down to 3.5% from 3.6%.
• Service sector inflation was unchanged at 4.7%.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices dropped from 5.1% to only 4.5%.

Employment 

Labour force data published by the Office for National Statistics is gradually recovering from previous unreliability issues due to low response rates since the pandemic. Even so, they need to be treated with some caution. The ONS figures for the quarter to August show:

• Unemployment rose 0.2% to 4.8%.
• Economic inactivity was unchanged at 21% of the working population aged between 16 and 64.
• Vacancies in the quarter to July fell by 9k to 717k and are 78k below pre-pandemic levels. This was the 38^th consecutive fall.
• Pay growth was 4.7% or 0.9% after inflation is taken into account.

Borrowings

In another unhelpful development for the Chancellor ahead of the forthcoming Budget, government borrowings surged in September. They hit £20.2bn, up £1.6bn from the same month last year and the highest September borrowing since 2020. City forecasts were looking for an even larger figure of £20.8bn. Rises in debt serving and welfare expenditure were greater than the rise in tax receipts.

Total borrowing so far this financial year is £99.8bn, £7.2bn more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March. It’s also the highest ever amount for the April to September period barring the equivalent period during the pandemic in 2020.

Insolvencies – September 2025

Individual monthly figures for business failures seem to have stabilised after a year of yo-yoing between rises and falls. On a non seasonally-adjusted basis for the whole UK, there were 2,044 corporate insolvencies in September 2025, compared to 2,034 in the previous month. This was up 7% on September 2024. Looking further back, the current figure is 28% higher than pre-pandemic in February 2020. The more meaningful rolling twelve-month total for September 2025 was 25,565. This is 4% down on a year previously and 9% down on the all-time high in February 2024.

Drilling down into the detail, the trend towards stronger creditor enforcement continues. On a rolling twelve-month basis, Compulsory Liquidations are now 16% of all company failures compared to only 13% in September 2024. Creditor Voluntary Liquidations (CVLs) have fallen back to 76% now from 78% a year ago.

What next for UK businesses?

We will know far more about how to answer this conundrum at the end of this month, once the Chancellor has delivered her Autumn Budget, although even then there will still be the twin uncertainties of how consumers may react and what further unrest is to be seen for global trade.

Until then we must stick to our advice in recent months that this remains a time for maintaining the strongest possible financial discipline and heightened risk awareness.

If you are seeking professional advice for your business or a client, Opus is here to help. One of our Partners can discuss options with you. We have offices UK wide and in Bermuda. By contacting us centrally on +44 (0) 203 995 6380, you will be able to get immediate assistance from our Partner-led team.